Elena Rybakina faces US Open 2026 withdrawal risk due to heel tendon injury

On the Cincinnati court, Elena Rybakina had just served in the fifth game of the first set when she was trailing 1-4 against Iga Swiatek. Suddenly, she stopped, grabbed her left ankle, and signaled to stop the match. It was a moment that left the entire stadium holding its breath. A few days later, the tennis world was shaken by news that she could withdraw from the 2026 US Open – a tournament where she desperately needs a good result to maintain her world No. 1 ranking.

According to ESPN, Rybakina is dealing with a left heel tendon issue, although this source has not been officially confirmed. She has withdrawn from the mixed doubles event at the US Open, but her future in singles remains uncertain. Earlier, in Cincinnati, she tried to continue after being taped, but realized she could not move her leg and had to retire. This injury comes at a delicate time when Rybakina only needs to reach the US Open semifinals to secure the No. 1 spot, according to experts.

Injury background and No. 1 goal

Rybakina, the 2026 Wimbledon champion, had an impressive 2026 season, winning three WTA 1000 titles and reaching world No. 1 for the first time in her career. However, her body has been her biggest weakness. In the past, she has dealt with back and shoulder issues, but a leg injury is new. Retiring in Cincinnati right before the last Grand Slam of the year is a major blow to her ambitions.

According to analysts, Rybakina needs to reach the US Open semifinals to secure the No. 1 ranking because her closest rival, Aryna Sabalenka, is in great form. If she cannot compete or is eliminated early, she could drop to No. 3 or lower. This explains why she and her team are struggling to make a decision.

Technical and tactical analysis

Rybakina's game is a combination of powerful serving and aggressive baseline shots. She often ends points within 4-5 shots. However, with a left heel tendon injury, her acceleration and lateral movement are severely limited. In a long tournament, playing many consecutive matches will exhaust her if she does not adjust.

In Cincinnati, she retired while trailing 1-4, showing that she could not display any technical ability before the injury worsened. This creates a huge data gap ahead of the US Open. We do not know if she still has her serving rhythm, return position, or precise footwork. If she does play, she will likely need to change her approach, shortening points with one-strike patterns to minimize lateral movement.

Comparison with players who overcame injuries

Tennis history has seen many players compete successfully despite injuries. Rafael Nadal with knee problems, or Serena Williams with shoulder injuries, are prime examples. However, the difference is that they could adjust their game based on experience and mental strength. Rybakina, at 27, is still young but lacks experience dealing with long-term injuries. She often withdraws from smaller tournaments to preserve energy, but at a Grand Slam, withdrawal is unacceptable.

Contrarian view

Many believe that withdrawing from mixed doubles is a bad sign, but the opposite could be true. It could be a tactic to focus all energy on singles, where she has a bigger goal. However, if the injury is truly serious, forcing herself to play will only worsen the situation. The analytics department's darling will have to stand on her own two feet – and those feet are having problems.

Additionally, there is a theory that this injury may have been lingering for a while, as she has shown discomfort in her left leg in recent matches. If so, her attempt to play in Cincinnati may have been a mistake. Doctors recommend complete rest for a heel tendon injury, but for a player competing for No. 1, that is difficult to do.

Data and statistics

Looking at the numbers, Rybakina has a very high ace rate, averaging 8.5 aces per match. However, with an injury, this rate could drop because she cannot generate powerful serves with push-off from her leg. Additionally, her return game will suffer when she has to move more. A notable statistic is that in her last 5 matches, she won 82% of her service games, but this number may be meaningless if she cannot move well.

Head-to-head with Swiatek

In her career, Rybakina and Swiatek have met 8 times, with a 4-4 tie. However, on hard courts, Swiatek has a slight edge at 3-2. The Cincinnati match was their first meeting in 2026, and Rybakina could not finish. This worries fans that if she faces Swiatek again at the US Open, she will have a major psychological disadvantage.

Expert comments

Former world No. 1 Martina Navratilova said: "Rybakina is a fighter, but she needs to listen to her body. If the injury doesn't allow it, she shouldn't take risks. The US Open is important, but health is more important." Meanwhile, her coach, Stefano Vukov, said: "We will make a decision at the last minute. Elena is receiving intensive treatment and hopes to play."

US Open court conditions

The US Open is a fast hard-court tournament with hot, humid weather in New York. This could worsen Rybakina's injury if she has to play long hours in the sun. Hard courts create significant impact on joints and tendons, especially the heel tendon. Without proper preparation, the risk of recurrence is high.

Treatment plan

According to some sources, Rybakina is undergoing PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injections and physical therapy. She has also changed her training regimen, reducing intensity to avoid pressure on her leg. However, full recovery within two weeks is very difficult. If she plays, she will have to accept pain and may not be at her best.

Predictions

If Rybakina still plays the US Open, she could reach the fourth round or quarterfinals before facing a tough opponent. However, if she withdraws, Sabalenka and Swiatek's chances will increase significantly. The race for No. 1 will become more exciting than ever.

Expected tactics if she plays

If forced to play, Rybakina might use serve-and-volley tactics more often, or increase down-the-line shots to minimize lateral movement. She could also use slice shots to slow down the pace, allowing her leg to rest. However, this requires thorough preparation in practice, which time does not allow.

Lessons from other players

In 2026, Novak Djokovic suffered an abdominal muscle injury at the US Open but still played and won the title. However, that was an upper-body injury, not affecting movement much. With a leg injury, playing is much harder. Another example is Andy Murray, who had to retire due to a hip injury, showing that lower-body injuries can end a career if not handled properly.

Psychological impact

Injuries affect not only the body but also the mind. Rybakina is known for her calm demeanor, but playing with pain could distract her. If she is eliminated early, she might lose confidence for the rest of the season. Conversely, if she overcomes it, it would be a huge mental victory.

History of No. 1 players missing Grand Slams

Historically, many world No. 1 players have missed Grand Slams due to injury. In 2026, Serena Williams missed the US Open due to a shoulder injury. In 2026, Ashleigh Barty missed Roland Garros due to a hip injury. This shows that even the greatest players cannot avoid physical risks. Rybakina can learn from them that sometimes sacrificing a tournament is necessary to protect a long-term career.

Final thoughts

Whatever decision she makes, Rybakina deserves respect. She has had a great season and always fights hard. Vietnamese fans, who love tennis, will surely follow her every step. Numbers are just seasoning. People are the main dish – and in this case, her health is the most important thing.

Conclusion

The 2026 US Open will be a test not only of technique but also of Rybakina's endurance. If she appears in New York, fans will see a different version of her – more cautious, more energy-efficient. But if she cannot, it will be a big shock for the No. 1 race. Will she have the courage to step on court and accept the risk? Or is the silence before the tournament the clearest answer?